Tesla
Fundamental pivot from EV automaker to AI/robotics company. FSD v14.3 (April 8 2026) with rewritten MLIR compiler and 20% faster reaction time. Unsupervised FSD pilots approved for London and Berlin (April 2026). Cybercab production started April 2026 at Gigafactory Texas. FSD moved to subscription-only model in February 2026 ($99/month). Robotaxi service expansion planned across 10+ US cities. FSD has 8.2B miles and 1.1M paid customers.
Scenarios
Robotaxi scales to 10+ cities in 2026. Analysts project $1B robotaxi revenue rising to $75B by 2030. Optimus at $20K cost creates largest humanoid robot business. EU unsupervised FSD pilots de-risk regulatory trajectory.
Regulatory approval for unsupervised FSD lags outside Texas. Optimus still R&D phase. Brand damage from Musk's politics accelerates European losses.
Key Factors to Watch
- ●FSD v14.3 (April 8 2026) rewrote compiler stack with 20% reaction time improvement
- ●Unsupervised FSD pilots approved for London and Berlin — EU regulatory breakthrough
- ●Cybercab production started at Gigafactory Texas April 2026
- ●FSD subscription-only from February 2026 ($99/month) — new recurring revenue model
- ●Tesla owns full AI stack (Dojo, FSD neural net, proprietary driving data)
Score History
| Date | Score | Direction | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-08 | 6.7 | Positive | Score 6.5→6.7 (are 6→7). are recalibrated: FSD subscriptions growing, Optimus program, Dojo supercomputer; AI is core investment thesis |
| 2026-03-08 | 6.5 | Positive | Score 6.7→6.5 (formula reweight: sb 0.25→0.15, are 0.20→0.25, md 0.20→0.25, dr 0.20→0.25, aam 0.15→0.10) |
| 2026-03-08 | 6.7 | Positive | Score 7.9→6.7 (are 9→6, dr 2→5). External research cross-ref: FSD <2% of $94.8B revenue (are↓); Waymo 250K rides/wk, BYD overtook EV sales, NHTSA investigations (dr↑) |
| 2026-03-08 | 7.9 | Positive | Initial assessment from batch 7 research |
Transportation Peers
Last researched: 2026-04-25
This is research and analysis, not financial advice. Scores reflect AI impact potential, not investment recommendations.