Updated weekly — March 2026
Specific predictions from OpenAI, Goldman Sachs, and leading researchers — each scored with evidence, updated weekly. You vote with yours.
17
Active Forecasts
50%
Avg. Probability
Dec '26
First Verdict
We collect falsifiable predictions from top AI labs, analysts, and researchers
Each prediction gets a probability based on data, base rates, and expert track records
When deadlines hit, we score accuracy. You vote your own forecast and see how you compare
Will entry-level knowledge worker job postings drop 50% from 2023 levels by end of 2026?
If you're a new grad, hiring manager, or parent of a college student — this changes your playbook.
Will 20%+ of large organizations use AI to eliminate at least half their middle management layers by end of 2027?
If you manage a team of 5-15 people, your role is more exposed than you think.
Will AI autonomously ship production features — from spec to deployment — without human code review at major tech companies by end of 2027?
If you're a software engineer, this determines whether AI is your best tool or your replacement.
Will more than 60% of enterprise AI agent projects be abandoned or scaled back by end of 2027?
If your company is betting on AI agents, there's a 60% chance the project gets killed or downsized — but the 40% that succeed will be transformative.
Will AI systems autonomously complete a full 8-hour professional workday — multiple tasks, context switching, decision-making — without human intervention by end of 2027?
This isn't about whether AI takes your job tomorrow — it's about how fast the 'AI can't do that' list is shrinking.
Will the gap between AI infrastructure spending and AI revenue trigger a major market correction (>20% decline in AI-weighted indices) by end of 2027?
Your retirement portfolio probably holds NVIDIA, Microsoft, and Google. This is what they're betting on — and what they need to deliver.
Will human-verified original art in the $1K-$10K price range see 30%+ price increases while AI art saturates the market by end of 2027?
If you're a creator, this reframes the threat: AI doesn't replace you, it makes your humanness your competitive advantage.
Will more than 30% of Fortune 500 companies drop degree requirements for knowledge-worker roles, citing AI skills as sufficient, by end of 2028?
If you're paying for college, have student debt, or are advising your kids — the math is changing fast.
Will national productivity statistics still show no measurable AI-driven acceleration through end of 2028?
Companies are spending billions on AI tools. The economy-wide numbers say it's not working yet.
Will AI-driven automation reduce India and Philippines BPO sector employment by 30%+ from 2025 levels by end of 2028?
This isn't about American jobs — it's about entire national economies built on selling cognitive labor that AI now does cheaper.
Will an AI-discovered drug receive FDA approval for a previously untreatable condition by end of 2028?
If you or someone you love faces an untreatable condition, this is the most hopeful and most uncertain frontier.
Will public trust in online media (news, video, images) fall below 25% in major democracy surveys by end of 2028?
When nobody can tell what's real online, it doesn't just affect media — it affects elections, courts, markets, and your ability to trust what you see.
Will US insurance claims adjuster employment decline 25%+ from its 2023 peak by end of 2029?
If you're an insurance adjuster, underwriter, or claims processor — your job is changing faster than any other white-collar role outside of tech.
Will a major publicly-disclosed security breach or outage be directly attributed to AI-generated code by end of 2027?
If your company deploys AI-generated code, you're running a security experiment whether you know it or not.
Will open-weight models consistently match proprietary frontier performance — making AI effectively free — by end of 2027?
If intelligence becomes free, every AI business model built on charging for it needs to be rethought — including the ones your retirement portfolio is betting on.
Will humanoid robots perform autonomous, unsupervised production tasks in 500+ global manufacturing sites by end of 2028?
If you work in manufacturing, logistics, or warehousing — humanoid robots are closer than you think. If you invest in automation — this is the next wave.
Will AI agents make 30%+ of today's SaaS applications redundant by end of 2028?
If you own SaaS stocks (and if you have index funds, you do), this question directly affects your portfolio. If you run a SaaS business, it's existential.
We add new predictions every week. Tell us what AI claim you want us to investigate — the more specific, the better.