Nobody Will Believe Anything They See Online by 2028
Will public trust in online media (news, video, images) fall below 25% in major democracy surveys by end of 2028?
When nobody can tell what's real online, it doesn't just affect media — it affects elections, courts, markets, and your ability to trust what you see.
Your Prediction
Where do you think this lands?
Join others who've weighed in
Scenarios
Current value: Gallup: trust in mass media at 31% (2025) — already near historic lows
S-curve position: Late decline phase — trust has been falling for years, AI adds acceleration
Below 20% (AI deepfakes trigger major democratic crisis, no effective countermeasures)
25-30% (continued decline, accelerated by AI but not catastrophically)
Trust stabilizes above 30% (content provenance standards work, regulation effective)
How We'll Know
- What we measure
- Public trust in online media as measured by major survey organizations (Gallup, Edelman, Reuters Institute)
- Confirmed if
- Trust in online media falls below 25% in 2+ major democracy surveys by end 2028
- Refuted if
- Trust in online media remains above 35% in major surveys, OR shows improvement
- Data sources
- Gallup media trust survey
- Edelman Trust Barometer
- Reuters Institute Digital News Report
- Pew Research media trust data
Evidence Trail
Evidence For
- Mar 7, 2026
NBC: experts warn of 'collapse of trust online.' UNESCO: deepfakes creating 'crisis of knowing.' Venezuela 2026: AI deepfakes undermined political accountability. AI voice cloning used for CEO impersonation fraud. Gallup: media trust already at 31%. Detection consistently lags generation capability.→ Probability: 40%
- Mar 7, 2026
Deepfake files projected at 8M in 2025 (16x since 2023). 40% of all biometric fraud attempts now use deepfakes. Human detection accuracy of high-quality deepfakes only 24.5%. Deloitte: GenAI-enabled fraud could reach $40B by 2027. Italian police froze ~€1M after AI-cloned voice of defence minister used to target business leaders. Canadian election: 5.86% of election images were deepfakes. Audio deepfake detectors at 88.9% but 45-50% drop on newer adversarial deepfakes. Inference cost collapse makes generation nearly free.→ Probability: 45%
- Mar 9, 2026
xAI's Grok generated ~3M sexualized images in 11 days. During 2026 Middle East conflict, AI deepfakes fueled misinformation on both sides — fabricated videos gained millions of views. White House released AI propaganda video mixing real military footage with Hollywood/anime. EU AI Act mandates watermarking for AI content (Aug 2026). Open-weight models enable offline generation of phishing, deepfakes, and malware beyond any safety guardrails. Italian police froze ~EUR1M after AI-cloned voice of defence minister targeted business leaders.→ Probability: 50%
- May 16, 2026
USC study (presented at The Web Conference 2026): AI agents can autonomously coordinate propaganda campaigns across social platforms faster than any human team, with coordination detectable behaviorally even when content looks organic. FTC sent formal warning letters to Meta, Apple, Microsoft, TikTok, Reddit, Snapchat, X ahead of TAKE IT DOWN Act May 19 compliance deadline — first substantive US federal enforcement posture on deepfakes. Deepfake fraud now ~11% of global fraudulent activity per industry trackers.→ Probability: 50%
Evidence Against
- Mar 7, 2026
Trust was already declining pre-AI — this may be continuation, not acceleration. Content provenance standards (C2PA) gaining traction. Regulation responding: South Korea AI Basic Act, China Deep Synthesis rules, EU AI Act. People developed literacy for photoshopped images — may adapt to AI. 25% is a very low threshold.
How Our View Evolved
- May 16, 202650%→50%
Light refresh — no probability move. W20 signals consistent with current 0.50 estimate: USC study presented at The Web Conference 2026 finds AI agents can autonomously coordinate propaganda campaigns at scale; FTC TAKE IT DOWN Act enforcement letters sent to 12+ platforms ahead of May 19 deadline (first US federal deepfake enforcement); EU Code of Practice on deepfake labeling nearing finalization.
- Mar 9, 202645%↑50%
Grok 3M deepfake images in 11 days. State-level AI propaganda (White House video). AI deepfakes in Middle East conflict. Voice cloning fraud in Italy. Real-world harm incidents accelerating.
- Mar 8, 2026Initial assessment: 45%
Baseline — initial published assessment
What Experts Say
Gartner
Technology Research and Advisory
“30% of enterprises will abandon facial verification by 2026 due to AI-generated deepfakes”
Deloitte Center for Financial Services
Financial services research arm of Deloitte
“GenAI-enabled fraud could reach $40 billion by 2027”
Siwei Lyu
Professor, University at Buffalo; deepfake detection researcher
“2026 is the year everyday people will be fooled by deepfakes”