AI Forecast Tracker

139 companies scored — Updated regularly

AI Impact Scoreboard

How will AI reshape the biggest companies? We score 139 companies on AI's impact — S&P 100 incumbents, private AI labs, and the companies most in AI's path.

Latest update: AppLovin CorporationScore 8.4→8.5 (rounding drift correction — dimensions unchanged, formula recomputed to match stored value) (2026-04-10)

139

Companies Scored

6.7

Avg Score (Positive)

17

Sectors Covered

Score Distribution

25
80
29
Very Positive (25)Positive (80)Neutral (29)Negative (2)Very Negative (3)
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How We Score

Each company is scored on five dimensions, weighted by their importance in the AI era. The formula produces a 1–10 composite score and a directional label.

AI Revenue Exposure

25%

How much revenue comes directly from AI products or services. AI providers (Nvidia, Palantir) score highest; traditional businesses score lower.

Moat Durability

25%

Strength of AI-era competitive advantages: proprietary data, switching costs, regulatory barriers, network effects. Brand moats alone don't count.

Disruption Risk

25%

Vulnerability to AI-driven displacement. Higher risk lowers the score. In a world where software is cheap, companies without hard moats face existential threat.

Sector Base

15%

How deeply AI transforms the company's sector overall. Software (9/10) and customer service (9/10) lead; agriculture (5/10) trails.

AI Adoption Maturity

10%

How deeply AI is embedded in operations. Weighted lowest because average AI adoption is becoming table stakes in 2026 — it's expected, not exceptional.

Direction Labels

Thresholds

Very Positive (≥8) · Positive (≥6) · Neutral (≥4.5) · Negative (≥3) · Very Negative (<3)

Scores are based on Q4 2025 / Q1 2026 data and updated regularly. We use a superforecasting methodology: numeric probabilities, base rates, Bayesian updating, and source quality tiers. Full methodology at About.

This is research and analysis, not financial advice. Scores reflect AI impact potential, not investment recommendations.