153 companies scored — Updated regularly

AI Impact Scoreboard

How will AI reshape the biggest companies? We score 153 companies on AI's impact — S&P 100 incumbents, private AI labs, and the companies most in AI's path.

Latest update: Mistral AI — W37 score 7.85→8.1 (moat_durability 7→8), crossing positive into very_positive. Mistral closed a €3B Series D on September 8 at a post-money valuation above €21B — the largest equity round ever raised by a European technology company — led by Samsung Electronics, with EQT's Scaleup Europe Fund and PSG Equity co-leading and Advent, BlackRock funds and the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg joining. The capital is earmarked for owning rather than renting data-centre capacity, which addresses the specific constraint behind the compute-scale bear case. Confirmed closed (not in talks) at Bloomberg and TechCrunch, and kept distinct from the separate July 21 Microsoft compute-purchase deal. The $1B ARR claim is a forward target and did not contribute to the move. (2026-09-12)

153

Companies Scored

6.9

Avg Score (Positive)

Sectors Covered

Score Distribution

Very Positive (36)Positive (83)Neutral (28)Negative (3)Very Negative (3)

How We Score

Each company is scored on five dimensions, weighted by their importance in the AI era. The formula produces a 1–10 composite score and a directional label.

AI Revenue Exposure

25%

How much revenue comes directly from AI products or services. AI providers (Nvidia, Palantir) score highest; traditional businesses score lower.

Moat Durability

25%

Strength of AI-era competitive advantages: proprietary data, switching costs, regulatory barriers, network effects. Brand moats alone don't count.

Disruption Risk

25%

Vulnerability to AI-driven displacement. Higher risk lowers the score. In a world where software is cheap, companies without hard moats face existential threat.

Sector Base

15%

How deeply AI transforms the company's sector overall. Software (9/10) and customer service (9/10) lead; agriculture (5/10) trails.

AI Adoption Maturity

10%

How deeply AI is embedded in operations. Weighted lowest because average AI adoption is becoming table stakes in 2026 — it's expected, not exceptional.

Direction Labels

Thresholds

Very Positive (≥8) · Positive (≥6) · Neutral (≥4.5) · Negative (≥3) · Very Negative (<3)

Scores are based on Q4 2025 / Q1 2026 data and updated regularly. We use a superforecasting methodology: numeric probabilities, base rates, Bayesian updating, and source quality tiers. Full methodology at About.

This is research and analysis, not financial advice. Scores reflect AI impact potential, not investment recommendations.