Kinder Morgan
Kinder Morgan delivered a standout Q1 2026: EPS $0.48 (+41% YoY), adjusted EBITDA $2.54B (+18%), and Moody's upgrade to Baa1. Project backlog grew to $10.1B with 92% natural gas and ~60% targeting power generation/data-center demand — three data-center-specific projects added in Q1 alone. Commercial discussions exceed 5 Bcf/d of power/data-center opportunities (1.6 Bcf/d data-center-specific). CEO Kim Dang projects 28 Bcf/day gas demand growth by 2030, with power demand ~3 Bcf/day of that total.
Scenarios
Backlog now $10.1B (up $800M in one quarter) with contracted data-center demand converting from discussions to projects. Each dollar of natural gas infrastructure earns regulated-like 7-9% returns for 20+ years — AI data-center demand is a 20-year annuity for KMI.
AI energy thesis is priced into stock. If solar + storage undercuts gas peakers faster than expected, or data-center load growth slows, new projects could be stranded. Net debt/EBITDA at 3.6x provides limited additional leverage capacity.
Key Factors to Watch
- ●Project backlog $10.1B (up from ~$9.3B prior quarter), 92% natural gas, ~60% tied to power/LDC demand
- ●Three new data-center-related projects added to backlog in Q1 2026 alone — AI demand converting to contracted capex
- ●Commercial discussions exceed 5 Bcf/d power/data-center opportunities; 1.6 Bcf/d data-center-specific in active discussion
- ●Q1 EPS $0.48 (+41% YoY), EBITDA $2.54B (+18%) — operational execution delivering against thesis
- ●Moody's upgrade to Baa1; all three agencies now at BBB+ equivalent — investment grade strengthening reduces financing risk
Score History
| Date | Score | Direction | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | 5.7 | Neutral | W20 refresh — score 5.5→5.7 (are 3→4). Q1 2026: EPS +41%, EBITDA +18%, Moody's upgrade to Baa1. Backlog grew to $10.1B — 3 new data-center projects added in Q1. |
| 2026-03-08 | 5.5 | Neutral | Score 6.0→5.5 (md 8→6). md recalibrated: pipeline infrastructure moat real but completely AI-irrelevant |
| 2026-03-08 | 6.0 | Positive | Initial assessment from batch 9 blind spot review |
Transportation Peers
Last researched: 2026-05-16
This is research and analysis, not financial advice. Scores reflect AI impact potential, not investment recommendations.