Kinder Morgan
Kinder Morgan delivered a standout Q1 2026: EPS $0.48 (+41% YoY), adjusted EBITDA $2.54B (+18%), and Moody's upgrade to Baa1. Project backlog grew to $10.1B with 92% natural gas and ~60% targeting power generation/data-center demand — three data-center-specific projects added in Q1 alone. Commercial discussions exceed 5 Bcf/d of power/data-center opportunities (1.6 Bcf/d data-center-specific). CEO Kim Dang projects 28 Bcf/day gas demand growth by 2030, with power demand ~3 Bcf/day of that total.
Scenarios
Backlog now $10.1B (up $800M in one quarter) with contracted data-center demand converting from discussions to projects. Each dollar of natural gas infrastructure earns regulated-like 7-9% returns for 20+ years — AI data-center demand is a 20-year annuity for KMI.
AI energy thesis is priced into stock. If solar + storage undercuts gas peakers faster than expected, or data-center load growth slows, new projects could be stranded. Net debt/EBITDA at 3.6x provides limited additional leverage capacity.
Key Factors to Watch
- ●Project backlog $10.1B (up from ~$9.3B prior quarter), 92% natural gas, ~60% tied to power/LDC demand
- ●Three new data-center-related projects added to backlog in Q1 2026 alone — AI demand converting to contracted capex
- ●Commercial discussions exceed 5 Bcf/d power/data-center opportunities; 1.6 Bcf/d data-center-specific in active discussion
- ●Q1 EPS $0.48 (+41% YoY), EBITDA $2.54B (+18%) — operational execution delivering against thesis
- ●Moody's upgrade to Baa1; all three agencies now at BBB+ equivalent — investment grade strengthening reduces financing risk
Score History
| Date | Score | Direction | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | 5.8 | Neutral | W29 rotation refresh after 63 days — score 5.7→5.8 (aam 4→5). Project backlog reached $10.1B and now explicitly incorporates data-centre-related natural gas contracts, with Barclays reaffirming on that basis (June 24) — the clearest evidence yet that Kinder Morgan is converting AI power demand into contracted volume rather than commentary. Small move because Q2 earnings land July 22, days after this refresh, and will be the first read with actual numbers attached to the data-centre backlog component. |
| 2026-05-16 | 5.7 | Neutral | W20 refresh — score 5.5→5.7 (are 3→4). Q1 2026: EPS +41%, EBITDA +18%, Moody's upgrade to Baa1. Backlog grew to $10.1B — 3 new data-center projects added in Q1. |
| 2026-03-08 | 5.5 | Neutral | Score 6.0→5.5 (md 8→6). md recalibrated: pipeline infrastructure moat real but completely AI-irrelevant |
| 2026-03-08 | 6.0 | Positive | Initial assessment from batch 9 blind spot review |
Transportation Peers
Last researched: 2026-07-18
This is research and analysis, not financial advice. Scores reflect AI impact potential, not investment recommendations.