Kodiak Robotics
Self-driving truck company that moonlights as defense contractor. Q1 2026 revenue $1.8M (+64% QoQ), driverless fleet grew to 28 trucks, 23,500+ cumulative paid driverless hours (+120% QoQ), 15,600+ loads delivered. Roehl Transport Dallas-Houston lane is live and running driverless freight; long-haul safety-driver removal still targeted H2 2026. Bosch partnership scaling hardware production; $50M DoD Army Robotic Combat Vehicle contract. Stock has kept sliding — near $4.63 in July 2026, below the May $6.50 capital-raise price and the $11.48 52-week high — on cash-burn concerns despite strong operating metrics.
Scenarios
Dual-revenue model is unique — commercial trucking de-risks defense timeline, defense funds commercial R&D. Bosch partnership (CES 2026) solves manufacturing at scale. Entire business is Driver-as-a-Service = 100% AI revenue model.
Autonomous trucking has been "two years away" for eight years. Q4 $1.1M revenue is still pre-commercial at scale. Torc, Aurora, Plus.ai all targeting same 2026-2027 window.
Key Factors to Watch
- ●IPO completed September 2025 (Nasdaq KDK); Q4 2025 revenue $1.1M (+37% QoQ)
- ●10,700+ paid driverless hours in Q4 2025 (+106% vs Q3) — operations scaling
- ●Fleet doubled in Q1 2026, triple-trailer capability unveiled; long-haul driverless launch H2 2026
- ●Martin Brower and Atlas are paying commercial customers — commercial revenue validated
- ●Bosch partnership for production-scale hardware manufacturing
Score History
| Date | Score | Direction | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | 7.5 | Positive | W20 refresh — score holds 7.5. May 2026 $100M raise at $6.50/share (steep discount, -37% stock); Roehl Transport Dallas-Houston route live April 2026 (4x weekly); Bosch scaling production toward hundreds of trucks by end-2026; H2 2026 driverless launch on track. |
| 2026-04-10 | 7.5 | Positive | Score 7.2→7.5 (are 8→9, aam 6→7). IPO completed (Sep 2025), Q4 $1.1M revenue +37% QoQ, 10,700+ paid driverless hours +106%, fleet doubled in Q1 2026, long-haul launch H2 2026. Entire revenue model is DaaS = 100% AI. Stays positive. |
| 2026-03-08 | 7.2 | Positive | Score 7.1→7.2 (formula reweight: sb 0.25→0.15, are 0.20→0.25, md 0.20→0.25, dr 0.20→0.25, aam 0.15→0.10) |
| 2026-03-08 | 7.1 | Positive | Initial assessment from batch 8 research |
Transportation Peers
Last researched: 2026-07-18
This is research and analysis, not financial advice. Scores reflect AI impact potential, not investment recommendations.