Scale AI
Data labeling and RLHF infrastructure for frontier AI training. Meta holds 49% non-voting stake at $29B valuation; Alexandr Wang moved to Meta as Chief AI Officer (Meta Superintelligence Labs). Jason Droege (ex-Uber) now CEO. $500M DoD / CDAO contract (5x the previous DoD deal) and 2026 revenue projected at ~$2B (130% YoY, up from ~$870M in 2024). Enterprise AI applications segment already generating $200M ARR separately.
Key Investors
Scenarios
Revenue doubling to $2B (130% YoY). Customers ARE the AI industry — can't build frontier AI without Scale. If synthetic data matures slower, advantage extends 3-5 years.
Existential risk: synthetic data and automated red-teaming making human labeling obsolete — stated goal of every major AI lab. Revenue concentration in 3-4 mega-clients.
Key Factors to Watch
- ●Meta holds 49% non-voting stake at $29B valuation; Wang now Chief AI Officer at Meta Superintelligence Labs
- ●$500M DoD / CDAO contract — 5x previous deal; government treating data quality as national security infrastructure
- ●2026 revenue projected ~$2B (130% YoY, vs ~$870M in 2024); enterprise segment $200M ARR separately
- ●Frontier-lab dependency narrowing as Meta + DoD become primary anchors — moat shifts from labs to governments
- ●Wang departure to Meta is the biggest single-person risk — succession execution under Droege is the unresolved variable
Score History
| Date | Score | Direction | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | 7.8 | Positive | W21 score 7.5→7.8 (md 7→8). DoD / CDAO contract expanded $249M→$500M (5x previous deal); 2026 revenue projection raised to $2B (130% YoY); valuation confirmed at $29B. Government lock-in and enterprise revenue diversification strengthen moat durability. |
| 2026-03-08 | 7.5 | Positive | Score 7.8→7.5 (formula reweight: sb 0.25→0.15, are 0.20→0.25, md 0.20→0.25, dr 0.20→0.25, aam 0.15→0.10) |
| 2026-03-08 | 7.8 | Positive | Score 7.9→7.8 (dr 5→6, aam 8→9). External research cross-ref: Meta 49% stake triggered competitor flight; specialist RLHF + robotics data maturity |
| 2026-03-08 | 7.9 | Positive | Initial assessment from batch 8 research |
Software Peers
Last researched: 2026-05-23
This is research and analysis, not financial advice. Scores reflect AI impact potential, not investment recommendations.