AI Forecast Tracker
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SoftwarePrivate

OpenAI

Largest AI company globally at $840B valuation after $110B funding round (February 2026). Revenue run rate approximately $24B annualized (April 2026), up from $12B ARR in late 2025. 900M+ weekly ChatGPT users; 50M+ paid subscribers. Enterprise now 40%+ of revenue. Codex at 2M weekly users (5x in 3 months). PBC conversion completed October 2025 — nonprofit Foundation retains 26% equity and full governance control. IPO targeted Q4 2026.

AI Impact Score
9.1/10
↑↑ Very Positive
Scoring Breakdown
Sector Base
9
AI Revenue Exposure
10
Moat Durability
9
Disruption Risk (lower=better)
2
AI Adoption Maturity
10

Key Investors

27%
Microsoft
11%
SoftBank
5%
Thrive Capital

Scenarios

Bull Case

Unmatched distribution (ChatGPT), deepest enterprise partnerships, and strongest brand in AI. Could become the default AI platform for a billion users. Enterprise revenue share growing.

Bear Case

Burning tens of billions on compute with uncertain unit economics. Open-source models closing the gap on core capabilities. Anthropic growing revenue faster in enterprise.

Key Factors to Watch

  • $24B ARR (April 2026) from $12B late 2025 — 2x in six months
  • 900M+ weekly ChatGPT users, 50M+ paid subscribers, enterprise 40%+ of revenue
  • $840B valuation after $110B round (Feb 2026) — IPO targeted Q4 2026
  • PBC conversion complete (Oct 2025); nonprofit Foundation keeps 26% equity and governance
  • Microsoft partnership remains primary compute dependency

Software Peers

Last researched: 2026-04-25

This is research and analysis, not financial advice. Scores reflect AI impact potential, not investment recommendations.