Palantir Technologies
The AIP platform is pulling away from enterprise software peers. US commercial revenue grew 137% YoY in Q4 2025 to $507M, up from ~$700M FY2024 to $1.47B FY2025. FY2026 guidance $7.18-7.20B (+61%), with US commercial >$3.14B (+115% YoY). AIP Bootcamp conversion rate >75%, 1,300+ bootcamps completed, 180+ deals >$1M in Q4 2025 alone. $448M Navy shipbuilding supply chain contract extends government moat.
Scenarios
2026 revenue guidance $7.2B implies 61% growth; US commercial +115% shows the platform compounding outside government. AIP ecosystem creating Salesforce-like lock-in at much higher margins. Enterprises cannot easily migrate off AIP workflows.
At 60x+ forward revenue, needs perfect execution for years. Government revenue concentration (~40%) creates political risk. April 10 2026 macro/tariff sell-off showed stock remains vulnerable to macro repricing.
Key Factors to Watch
- ●Q4 2025 US commercial revenue +137% YoY to $507M; FY2026 US commercial guided >$3.14B (+115%)
- ●AIP Bootcamp conversion rate >75%, 1,300+ bootcamps completed, 180+ deals >$1M in Q4 2025
- ●$448M Navy shipbuilding supply chain contract extends government moat
- ●Pivoting from analytics tool to AI operating system — ontology layer is the real moat
Score History
| Date | Score | Direction | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-08 | 8.6 | Very Positive | Score 8.8→8.6 (formula reweight: sb 0.25→0.15, are 0.20→0.25, md 0.20→0.25, dr 0.20→0.25, aam 0.15→0.10) |
| 2026-03-08 | 8.8 | Very Positive | Score 8.6→8.8 (md 8→9). External research cross-ref: $10B Army contract + ontology switching costs + 157 deals >$1M validate stronger moat |
| 2026-03-08 | 8.6 | Very Positive | Blind spot review: disruption_risk 2→4 (competition from Databricks/MSFT Fabric), moat_durability 9→8 (govt concentration risk) |
| 2026-03-08 | 9.2 | Very Positive | Initial assessment from batch 8 research |
Software Peers
Last researched: 2026-03-29
This is research and analysis, not financial advice. Scores reflect AI impact potential, not investment recommendations.