Nebius Group
Amsterdam-based "neocloud" — GPU-as-a-service infrastructure spun out of Yandex — renting Nvidia compute to AI labs and hyperscalers. Q1 2026 group revenue $399M (+684% YoY), AI segment ARR $1.9B (+50% QoQ), AI adjusted EBITDA margin swung to 45% from 24% in Q4 2025 — genuinely profitable, unlike most neocloud peers. Contracted backlog of ~$46B: $27B from Meta (5-year deal, $12B fixed + $15B optional) and ~$17-19.4B from Microsoft (New Jersey data center). 2026 guidance raised to $3-3.4B group revenue and $20-25B capex (up from $16-20B), funded partly by a new $775M senior secured debt facility (July 17, 2026) backed by deployed GPUs plus contracted cash flows — the company's first secured debt, aimed at avoiding further equity dilution.
Scenarios
Rare profitable neocloud with a fully sold-out capacity, a 3.5x QoQ pipeline (ex-mega-deals), and a $46B backlog anchored by two of the most credit-worthy counterparties in tech. Asset-backed debt financing signals lender confidence in contracted cash flows rather than speculative capex, and ex-Yandex engineering talent gives real operational differentiation versus commodity GPU resellers.
Backlog is dominated by two customers (Meta, Microsoft) who could renegotiate, delay, or eventually insource; capex guidance ($20-25B) dwarfs 2026 revenue guidance (~$3.3B), and the company just took on its first secured debt to keep funding the buildout. Pennsylvania campus delivery slipped to late 2027/2030, Q2 margins are guided down on front-loaded hiring and capacity spend, and the whole model shares the hyperscaler GPU-useful-life depreciation risk our house forecast (P-049) puts at 45% probability of disclosure by FY2027.
Key Factors to Watch
- ●Q1 2026 AI segment ARR $1.9B (+50% QoQ), AI adjusted EBITDA margin 45%, group EBITDA swung to +$130M
- ●Contracted backlog ~$46B: $27B Meta (5yr) + ~$17-19.4B Microsoft — but concentrated in two counterparties
- ●2026 capex guidance raised to $20-25B against ~$3.3B revenue guidance — steep leverage on future demand
- ●First-ever secured debt facility ($775M, July 2026) backed by deployed GPUs + investment-grade customer cash flows
- ●Competes directly with CoreWeave, Lambda, and hyperscalers' own capacity for the same GPU-rental demand
Software Peers
Last researched: 2026-07-19
This is research and analysis, not financial advice. Scores reflect AI impact potential, not investment recommendations.