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HealthcareRXRX

Recursion Pharmaceuticals

Recursion's Q2 2026, reported in early August, shows collaboration revenue falling to $7.67M from $19.22M a year earlier, about 36% below consensus, as the Roche and Genentech collaboration phases wind down. Net loss narrowed to $131.01M from $171.90M as R&D spending dropped to $89.61M, and $556.82M of cash now funds operations into early 2028 against trimmed full-year operating expense guidance below $375M. REC-1245 dose-escalation in the DAHLIA study continues with no efficacy data published yet; company guidance points to a second-half readout still pending. The direction is genuinely mixed - improving burn discipline against a real near-term revenue gap - which is why the score does not move.

AI Impact Score
7.6/10
Positive
Scoring Breakdown
Sector Base
7
AI Revenue Exposure
9
Moat Durability
7
Disruption Risk (lower=better)
3
AI Adoption Maturity
8

Scenarios

Bull Case

Seven programs in trials is unparalleled pipeline density for this size. Exscientia merger created 30+ active programs with Roche/Bayer relationships. Single Phase 2 success re-rates entire company.

Bear Case

Drug discovery AI has credibility problem — multiple companies failed to translate AI candidates to clinical success. Revenue still from partnerships, cash burn continuous.

Key Factors to Watch

  • REC-1245: target ID to IND in under 18 months — benchmark-setting; ENLYGHT Phase 1 now dosing
  • 5 programs with defined next-stage milestones; ClinTech applies AI to trial design itself
  • Roche, Genentech, and Sanofi partnerships validate platform; $500M+ milestones earned
  • Najat Khan as CEO (Jan 2026) — Roche/Genentech veteran, drug-development execution focus
  • $665M cash runway into early 2028; partnership milestones are the principal revenue lever

Score History

DateScoreDirectionNote
2026-03-087.6PositiveScore 7.5→7.6 (are 8→9, dr 2→3). External research cross-ref: entire platform is AI-driven (are up); >90% drug failure rate + program terminations (dr up)
2026-03-087.5PositiveInitial assessment from batch 8 research

Healthcare Peers

Last researched: 2026-09-12

This is research and analysis, not financial advice. Scores reflect AI impact potential, not investment recommendations.