Micron Technology
Memory pure-play with HBM3E qualified into NVIDIA Hopper/Blackwell platforms; HBM4 sampling. Q2 FY2026 EPS $12.20 beat $9.31 estimate (March 2026). Data center revenue growing fastest, with HBM bit growth outpacing total DRAM. NAND tailwind from AI inference workloads (vector DBs, KV-cache offload). One of three HBM suppliers globally (vs SK hynix, Samsung).
Scenarios
HBM TAM grows from $20B (2024) to $100B+ (2027) — Micron from <5% to 20-25% share creates structural revenue lift. NAND demand returns as inference deployment scales beyond hyperscaler training clusters.
Memory remains cyclical and commoditized — HBM premium pricing erodes as Samsung/SK hynix capacity ramps. Capital intensity (>$15B/year capex) eats FCF in down-cycles. Customer concentration on NVIDIA + 2-3 hyperscalers.
Key Factors to Watch
- ●HBM3E qualified at NVIDIA — sole-source on portion of Blackwell allocation; HBM4 ramp 2026-2027
- ●Q2 FY2026 EPS $12.20 beat by 31% — sell-the-news -4.3% but thesis intact
- ●HBM bit growth outpaces total DRAM bit growth — AI mix shift drives margin expansion
- ●Three-supplier oligopoly (Micron, SK hynix, Samsung) limits price race-to-bottom near-term
Manufacturing Peers
Last researched: 2026-05-08
This is research and analysis, not financial advice. Scores reflect AI impact potential, not investment recommendations.