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ManufacturingLMT
Lockheed Martin
$194B backlog, $77.5-80B sales guidance. DARPA AIR contract for airborne tactical autonomy. STAR.OS AI platform. F-35 procurement cut from 68 to 47 aircraft is headwind.
AI Impact Score
7.4/10
↑ Positive
Scoring Breakdown
Sector Base
8
AI Revenue Exposure
6
Moat Durability
9
Disruption Risk (lower=better)
3
AI Adoption Maturity
7
Scenarios
Bull Case
$194B backlog provides multi-year revenue visibility. DARPA AIR and STAR.OS position Lockheed to compete for DoD's $13.4B AI autonomy budget.
Bear Case
F-35 TR-3 software delays constrained deliveries. If defense AI budgets shift to non-traditional contractors (Anduril, Palantir), Lockheed may be slower to capture.
Key Factors to Watch
- ●$194B backlog provides 2-3 year revenue floor
- ●DARPA AIR + STAR.OS — most mature AI autonomy stack among prime contractors
- ●F-35 procurement cut (68 to 47) is real headwind
Score History
| Date | Score | Direction | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | 7.4 | Positive | W20 refresh — score holds 7.4. Q1 2026 sales $18.0B; Project Overwatch demonstrated first in-flight tactical AI Combat ID (February 2026); MATRIX autonomy on Black Hawk UH-60M X enables optionally piloted operations; Lockheed Martin Ventures Fund doubled to $1B. |
| 2026-03-08 | 7.4 | Positive | Score 7.5→7.4 (formula reweight: sb 0.25→0.15, are 0.20→0.25, md 0.20→0.25, dr 0.20→0.25, aam 0.15→0.10) |
| 2026-03-08 | 7.5 | Positive | Score 7.5→7.5 (are 7→6, md 8→9). External research cross-ref: $194B backlog + F-35 sustainment = near-impregnable moat (md↑); AI not primary revenue driver (are↓) |
| 2026-03-08 | 7.5 | Positive | Initial assessment from batch 5 research |
Manufacturing Peers
Last researched: 2026-05-16
This is research and analysis, not financial advice. Scores reflect AI impact potential, not investment recommendations.