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ConsultingIBM
IBM
Clearest disruption-risk story in Big Tech. Claude Code COBOL automation announcement caused 13.2% single-day stock drop. Consulting grew only 3% while software grew 14%.
AI Impact Score
6.1/10
↑ Positive
Scoring Breakdown
Sector Base
7
AI Revenue Exposure
6
Moat Durability
6
Disruption Risk (lower=better)
5
AI Adoption Maturity
8
Scenarios
Bull Case
100+ year enterprise relationships and mainframe stickiness ($3T+ daily transactions) mean disruption plays out over 5-10 years. Watsonx $12B pipeline shows enterprise trust.
Bear Case
AI agents reduce 3-year $50M modernization projects to 6-month $5M engagements. $61.3B debt leaves little room for aggressive reinvention.
Key Factors to Watch
- ●Disruption risk of 8 reflects Claude Code COBOL threat as a signal, not overreaction
- ●Enterprise relationships are real but not immune to AI tools doing the same job for 90% less
- ●Watsonx software growth (14%) needs to exceed consulting decline for transformation to hold
Score History
| Date | Score | Direction | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-08 | 6.1 | Positive | Score 6.2→6.1 (reweight + dr 6→5). dr corrected: $12.5B GenAI book of business, $4.5B internal AI savings, Watsonx pipeline |
| 2026-03-08 | 6.2 | Positive | Score 5.1->6.2 (are 5->6, md 5->6, dr 8->6, aam 6->8). External research cross-ref: dramatically underscored — $12.5B GenAI book, Project Bob 45% productivity, $4.5B internal savings, $14.7B FCF, z17 +67% |
| 2026-03-08 | 5.1 | Neutral | Initial assessment from batch 1 research |
Consulting Peers
Last researched: 2026-03-19
This is research and analysis, not financial advice. Scores reflect AI impact potential, not investment recommendations.