General Motors
GM is pivoting to software-defined vehicles after a costly Cruise robotaxi failure ($7.6B writedown Q4 2025). FY2025 revenue $185B with adjusted EBIT of $12.7B. Super Cruise has 120,000 paying users ($400M expected 2026 revenue). Google Gemini-powered conversational AI integrated into vehicles in 2026.
Scenarios
OnStar's 12M subscribers + Super Cruise growth toward $400M annual revenue is a high-margin software business growing inside a $185B hardware company — could become a $5-10B ARR business by 2030.
GM wrote down $7.6B on Cruise — the most expensive AV failure in automotive history. Tesla's FSD installed on 5M+ vehicles provides a multi-year training data advantage GM cannot close.
Key Factors to Watch
- ●Cruise writedown ($7.6B) eliminates robotaxi optionality — Super Cruise ADAS is the entire autonomous strategy
- ●Super Cruise 700M miles driven without a reported crash; $400M 2026 revenue is the monetization proof
- ●Google Gemini in-vehicle AI (2026) and eyes-off driving (2028 Escalade IQ) are next catalysts
Score History
| Date | Score | Direction | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-08 | 5.1 | Neutral | Score 5.5→5.1 (formula reweight: sb 0.25→0.15, are 0.20→0.25, md 0.20→0.25, dr 0.20→0.25, aam 0.15→0.10) |
| 2026-03-08 | 5.5 | Neutral | Initial assessment from batch 9 blind spot review |
Manufacturing Peers
Last researched: 2026-03-16
This is research and analysis, not financial advice. Scores reflect AI impact potential, not investment recommendations.