GE Vernova
Gas turbines, grid equipment, and nuclear — the dispatchable-power bottleneck assets of the AI data center buildout. Q1 2026 (April 22) orders $18.3B (+71% organic), revenue $9.3B (+16%), adjusted EBITDA nearly doubled to $0.9B (9.6% margin), total backlog $163B (+$13B sequentially) with $200B now expected in 2027 (vs 2028 prior); 2026 guidance raised. Gas equipment backlog plus slot reservations grew from 83 to 100 GW (≥110 GW expected by year-end), effectively sold out into 2030 at improving prices — data centers are ~20% of the gas backlog. Electrification orders +111% YoY ($7.1B) including $2.4B of data-center equipment orders in Q1 alone, more than all of 2025.
Scenarios
Sold-out gas turbine slots into 2030 in a three-player oligopoly (GEV, Siemens Energy, Mitsubishi) equal multi-year pricing power — every AI data center wave needs dispatchable generation plus grid equipment. SMR optionality is real — Darlington BWRX-300 under construction, up to $40B US-Japan government support for Tennessee/Alabama builds.
Revenue recognition is 2027-2030 weighted — if AI capex peaks before slots convert, order momentum reverses while capacity expands into a glut (20 to 24 GW/yr output target by 2028). Wind segment remains a profitability drag, and the stock prices in continued order beats.
Key Factors to Watch
- ●Q1 2026: orders $18.3B (+71% organic), backlog $163B, $200B expected in 2027; 2026 guidance raised
- ●Gas backlog + slot reservations at 100 GW (83 GW prior quarter), sold out into 2030 at improving prices; data centers ~20%
- ●Electrification orders +111% YoY — $2.4B data-center equipment orders in Q1 alone, more than all of 2025
- ●SMR/nuclear optionality — Darlington BWRX-300 base mat approved; up to $40B US-Japan support framework
- ●Revenue lags orders (2027-2030 weighted) — AI-capex cycle timing vs capacity expansion is the key risk
Manufacturing Peers
Last researched: 2026-06-11
This is research and analysis, not financial advice. Scores reflect AI impact potential, not investment recommendations.