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ManufacturingDUK

Duke Energy

$4.9B profits in 2025. Signed 1.5 GW of data center contracts in Q4 2025 alone. $83B five-year capex plan — most aggressive in company history. Data centers projected 10% of electric sales by 2030.

AI Impact Score
7.1/10
Positive
Scoring Breakdown
Sector Base
8
AI Revenue Exposure
6
Moat Durability
7
Disruption Risk (lower=better)
2
AI Adoption Maturity
6

Scenarios

Bull Case

Carolinas service territory is major data center destination — geographic lock-in with no alternative utility. $83B capex creates compounding rate base earning regulated returns.

Bear Case

Internal AI adoption is below utility peer average — passive demand beneficiary, not active AI deployer. Regulatory rollback could compress margins.

Key Factors to Watch

  • 1.5 GW data center contracts signed in Q4 2025 alone
  • Carolinas geographic moat: major hub with no competing utility
  • Internal AI maturity low — demand beneficiary, not AI-driven operator

Score History

DateScoreDirectionNote
2026-03-087.1PositiveScore 7.3→7.1 (md 8→7). md recalibrated: regulated utility, moat persists but AI-irrelevant
2026-03-087.3PositiveScore 7.3→7.3 (are 7→6, aam 5→6). External research cross-ref: DC revenue impact delayed to 2028 (are↓); AWS collab + self-healing grid + autonomous control patents (aam↑)
2026-03-087.3PositiveInitial assessment from batch 5 research

Manufacturing Peers

Last researched: 2026-03-11

This is research and analysis, not financial advice. Scores reflect AI impact potential, not investment recommendations.