AppLovin Corporation
AI advertising machine with game studios attached. AXON 2.0 owns ~60% of mobile mediation. Q4 2025 revenue $1.66B (+66% YoY); FY2025 $5.48B. Q1 2026 guidance $1.745-1.775B with 84% adjusted EBITDA margin — best-in-class in ad tech. SEC investigation opened October 2025 into alleged data use violations in targeted ads — governance risk flag. Short-seller CapitalWatch money-laundering report (January 2026) was retracted February 9.
Scenarios
E-commerce expansion (AXON Ads Manager, H1 2026) could add $1.45B in new revenue. AXON engine processes billions of bid decisions daily — network effects are winner-take-most.
SEC investigation and short-seller activity reveal platform risk amplified by regulatory scrutiny. Sold gaming studios to focus on ad tech — must prove AXON works outside mobile gaming. Google and Meta have deeper brand relationships and more first-party data.
Key Factors to Watch
- ●Q4 2025 $1.66B (+66%); Q1 2026 guidance $1.745-1.775B at 84% EBITDA margins — durable AI performance
- ●SEC investigation (October 2025, data use in targeted ads) — governance risk, not product risk
- ●E-commerce expansion H1 2026; $1.45B additional revenue projected
Score History
| Date | Score | Direction | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | 8.5 | Very Positive | Score 8.4→8.5 (rounding drift correction — dimensions unchanged, formula recomputed to match stored value) |
| 2026-03-08 | 8.4 | Very Positive | Score 8.5→8.4 (formula reweight: sb 0.25→0.15, are 0.20→0.25, md 0.20→0.25, dr 0.20→0.25, aam 0.15→0.10) |
| 2026-03-08 | 8.5 | Very Positive | Initial assessment from batch 8 research |
Marketing Peers
Last researched: 2026-04-25
This is research and analysis, not financial advice. Scores reflect AI impact potential, not investment recommendations.