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HRADP
Automatic Data Processing
Strong Q2 FY2026 — revenue up 6%, EPS up 11%. ADP Assist (AI payroll/HR/tax) is live. Core moat is regulatory complexity and data scale: 1.1M clients, 42M wage earners, 50-state compliance.
AI Impact Score
5.5/10
↔ Neutral
Scoring Breakdown
Sector Base
6
AI Revenue Exposure
6
Moat Durability
7
Disruption Risk (lower=better)
7
AI Adoption Maturity
6
Scenarios
Bull Case
42M wage-earner dataset is richest labor market data in private hands. 140+ country compliance coverage. Switching costs high — payroll errors mean employees don't get paid.
Bear Case
AI-native HCM startups (Deel, Wisq) can undercut on price for non-compliance components. PEO bookings below expectation in Q2 2026.
Key Factors to Watch
- ●ADP float income (~$1.5B+ annually) is structural advantage no startup can replicate
- ●WorkForce Software acquisition integration being watched closely
- ●AI-native threat is mid-term (3-5 years) — compliance complexity buys time
Score History
| Date | Score | Direction | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-08 | 5.5 | Neutral | Score 5.6→5.5 (formula reweight: sb 0.25→0.15, are 0.20→0.25, md 0.20→0.25, dr 0.20→0.25, aam 0.15→0.10) |
| 2026-03-08 | 5.6 | Neutral | Blind spot review: sector corrected from software-development to hr-recruitment (sector_base 9→6) |
| 2026-03-08 | 6.4 | Positive | Initial assessment from batch 6 research |
Last researched: 2026-04-25
This is research and analysis, not financial advice. Scores reflect AI impact potential, not investment recommendations.